I've got the hands to prove it

Just to prove my point, consider the action on the following hands.  These hands occurred the other night during the CES show in Las Vegas.  I'm playing $10/20 Omaha hi/lo and $20/40 mixed game at the Wynn (Monday, 01/08/07). 

Hand-1:

I'm on the button with A367 single suited -- clubs.  I call the blind bet from the button.  The small blind raises, everybody calls, and we now see a flop.

Flop:  5s 6s 7d

The SB bets, and the BB raises.  I smooth call my top two pair, very leery that I have the best hand when there's already three possible straights on the board.  I assume the BB flopped a straight, so I just call from the button -- as I have position on the other players.  The SB now raises to 3-bet the hand.  I don't think he has a hand as strong as A289 with the nut spade flush redraw; I don't even think he has A248 because those hands wouldn't make sense as a pre-flop raising hand from the small blind.  Instead, I assume he's got a hand like A23X or A24X with the nut spade redraw.  So I figure he's got the nut low with a nut flush re-draw -- as that's just about the only reason I might 3-bet from the SB (already assuming he didn't flop the straight).  But then, the BB raises again to 4-bet; this again tells me that the BB flopped the straight, and he probably has the A289 in his hand, or the A248.  So now I think I know what I'm up against, and I decided to call.  I figured if I don't fill up with a full-house on the turn, or see a two to make the nut low, I'll abandon ship.  But just as soon as I call, the SB caps the action -- with 5 bets.  After we both call, we're set for the turn.

Turn:  5s 6s 7d 7c

Sweet, this settles everything, I just turned the nut full house, with a redraw to scoop (I'm already assuming my A3 is not good for the low).  As was their previous pattern, the SB bets and the BB raises.  When I 3-bet from the button, both player's heads snap over and look at me.  Now they've both just figured out that I probably filled up on the turn.  Instead of raising, they both decided to call.

River:  5s 6s 7d 7c Js

The river made a flush, assuming that the SB was chasing the flush.  But instead of betting, both players wisely checked to me to let me bet.  They both called; and we now must show our cards.

The SB shows:  As 2c 4s Qd for a nut low.  He basically had the exact hand I thought he had.  He had the nut low with nut spade flush re-draw.  This hand makes much more sense as a pre-flop raising hand than A289 did (see my article:  Thinking of Raising with A2LH? to see why this makes sense as a raising hand).  This guy clearly overvalued the A2 nut low, and was raising like a holdem player on a draw.

The BB shows Ah 2s 2d 9d for a nut low.  This guy fell into the classic trap of thinking of the A22 in his hand, that nobody else could have also a nut low.  This is a classic mistake, and I can't tell you how many times I've fallen into it myself to get quartered, or even 1/6th the pot.

The SB clearly overvalued the A2 nut low and was raising like a holdem player who was playing out of his league in a live O8 game.  The BB fell into the trap of thinking that A22 would be the only nut low possible and kept raising based on that erroneous assumption.  When the hands were turned up, the SB got out of his seat to see why the BB kept raising.  Even as erroneous as it was to assume that A22 was the only low possible, at least I understood the reasoning behind his raises.  What I'll never understand, and I don't think the SB ever understood, was why he kept raising on nothing but his low plus draw -- with three players in the pot.  So I raked in 1/2 this rather large pot, and watched the SB sit there and stew in his own mess for a while -- as steam was pouring out of his ears for some time to come.

Hand-2:

In between these hands, I watched the guy who was the SB from the previous hand raise in and out of position many times.  If the flop would come high, he would fold to a bet.  More often than not, the flop did come high when this guy was raising, so you would have thought he would learn his lesson...but he didn't.  So it's clear that he overvalues an A2XX hand by raising with it every time one is dealt to him.

In Hand-2, I'm dealt A23K single suited (clubs), in the SB.  If there was ever a time to raise with an A2XX hand, this is it.  Remember from my previous article, that A23K will make a low in nearly 62% of all hands played.  Therefore you would think holding a hand like A23K suited would warrant a raise.  But caution being the better part of valor, I didn't.

The flop:  8c 7d Th (a rainbow).

This flop looks mostly harmless; I know I have the nut low draw, but I'm in early position.  Instead of betting, the action checks to the button, who bets.  Three other people call.

The turn:  8c 7d Th Ac

If there ever was another time to raise, this would certainly be it.  I have what would appear to be a non-counterfeitable low, and the nut flush re-draw in clubs.  Why not bet and/or raise?  The answer is simple:  I've seen too many hands in Omaha, and there's still a 8% chance that the river will screw me.  If a 2 or 3 hits on the river...and it's not a club...I'm screwed.  So instead I check, and let the guy on the button do the betting.  Again, all three people call.

The River:  8c 7d Th Ac 3d

Great, just friggin great!  I'm now completely counterfeited, there's a possible straight on the board.  My best low is now A2378, instead of the nut low.  I even muttered to the guy next to me (the SB in the previous hand) that I think the river just completely screwed my hand.  So as I suspect the worst, I check my two pair.  And for some completely insane reason, everybody checks as well (including the button).  The check by the button actually encouraged me...until he turned up his hand.  He turns over 4569 (a real great hand in O8...no doubt).  The 6-9 gives him the 2nd nut straight, and the 45 gives him the 3rd nut low (A3457 beats my A2378)...he scoops the entire pot (makes me wonder why he checked the river).

I show my cards, then slam them into the muck as I say -- in a rather nasty tone of voice (to the SB guy next to me):  "That's why you don't raise with Ace-Deuce."  Imagine having 92%% sure bet for 1/2 the pot pre-flop, and hitting runner-runner counterfeit to get absolutely nothing.  That's typical of my luck, and that's exactly why I don't raise with Ace-Deuce.

Hand-3 & Hand-4:

The next two hands don't show how bad things can happen by raising with a nut low, but instead shows how even the most solid appearing low nut low can be subject to getting quartered.

Hand-3 occurred at the $20/40 mixed game at the Wynn.  This donkey who was playing $10/20 O8 earlier kept raising my blind with the most insane garbage -- every time the action was folded to him.  As is my usual custom with any reasonable hand, I defend my blind.  In three of those hands, the guy hit a 2 or 3 outter on me at the river to scoop the pot.  In three other hands, he hit a 3 outter on me to quarter me (when I would have scooped or quartered him).  So I'm already pissed at this guy because he's such a donkey.

So after we move to the $20/40 game, I'm dealt 2233 in the BB.  The donkey raises me, as he always does.

Flop, Turn, River:  6d 6c Td 8s Ad

This guy is betting all the way through, and I'm just calling -- because frankly, I'm sick of this guy and I want to call him down with a pair of 3's, just to show the table how much of an idiot he is (because I'm assuming he's overvaluing his position and playing trash cards.)  When the river ace comes, I say to him:  "this is one time you're not going to quarter me with my nut low."  He responds:  "Oh yeah, well I just did..." as he turns over 2d, 3s, 4c, 7d -- for a 7-high flush with nut low.  Imagine my consternation knowing that I was actually ahead in the entire hand until the river, and even holding 2233 for the nut low didn't guarantee that I didn't get quartered.

The Hand-4 occurred online, but also serves a great illustration.  I'm dealt AA22 and I make the nut low by the river.  There was so much action on this hand, that I figured either my aces would be good for the high, or my AA22 would nearly guarantee I wasn't counterfeited on the low.  Instead, it was even worse.  Even though I had AA22, two other players had A2 also.  My aces weren't good for the high, and I ended up splitting the low 3-ways (1/6 the pot).  That's about as bad as it comes.

Summary:

So next time you see me playing and I give you a ration of crap for raising your nut low, just remember how stupid the proposition is.  If you're 2-handed, you can't scoop and there's no point to raise.  If you're 3 or 4 handed, you're almost certainly going to get quartered.  So don't be a fool, just check-call your nut low, unless you have at least two pair or better to go along with it.